1/1/2024 0 Comments Plug stock prediction![]() There are a lot of political plans, but ultimately the free market with supply and demand will prevail. With the previous paragraphs, I just wanted to say that there are still many question marks and, so far, few actual, hard facts that hydrogen will become established on a large scale. This may happen I don't want to exclude that at all. Plug Power, however, bases its own story on the assumption that this future scenario of renewable energy to hydrogen will occur on a large scale and that the company will play a significant role in it. Because then, we could burn these energy sources directly, which would be even more efficient since, with each energy conversion, a lot of energy gets lost, about 30%. And if you use gas, coal, or oil to produce hydrogen, the entire process becomes pointless. The problem is that, so far, the hydrogen process is costly and not competitive. Ultimately, it is also just a medium to release stored energy. The way hydrogen can be used reminds me overall of oil and gas. It can be transformed into electricity and methane to power homes and feed industry, and into fuels for cars, trucks, ships and planes. It can be transported as a gas by pipelines or in liquid form by ships, much like liquefied natural gas (LNG). ![]() A wide variety of fuels are able to produce hydrogen, including renewables, nuclear, natural gas, coal and oil. Technologies already available today enable hydrogen to produce, store, move and use energy in different ways. But so far, this production method is by far the least profitable compared to hydrogen production from gas or coal. In the CO2-neutral future scenarios, it is assumed that hydrogen will be produced from surplus energy from renewable energy sources. At the moment, many things are being politically pushed and subsidized, but in the long run, this will not be able to cancel out the free market. Global demand has increased in the last decades, but it remains more of a niche product. ![]() After all, we still drive, fly, and heat with oil today and not with hydrogen. What seems to be clear, however, is that hydrogen has not yet established itself on the free market. In the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, low-emissions hydrogen plays a key role in sectors that are hard to decarbonise, such as heavy industry and long-distance transport, with electrolysis powered by renewable electricity being the main route of production. Hydrogen production today is primarily based on unabated fossil fuel technologies. What is the role of electrolysers in clean energy transitions? This is just one example of how dynamically changing the so-called energy transition is. These could be extremely cheap to produce as Sodium is considerably cheaper than Lithium. For example, I wrote an article about emerging sodium-based batteries a few months ago. However, predicting the future remains difficult: Factors such as production costs, competition from electric cars, future costs of batteries as potential competition for energy storage, future oil prices, and more make forecasts very challenging. Furthermore, it could include various transportation methods. The total addressable market has immense potential as a possible storage option for excess electricity. Overall, an investment would be too driven by a good-sounding story. Future forecasts are difficult because they depend on many complex factors. Currently, hydrogen is politically promoted and subsidized, but hydrogen would have a hard time on the free market. In addition, share dilution and high share-based compensations are disadvantaging shareholders. ![]() Plug Power's ( NASDAQ: PLUG) profitability projections (profitable in 2025) appear overly optimistic, given the company's increasing expenses relative to its revenues. Despite its potential, hydrogen is currently not competitive due to its high cost and lower efficiency.
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